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Usually, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year award follows a simple formula. It frequently serves as a kind of apology. We regret we misjudged your team in our pre-campaign forecasts.

In theory, it's a clear-cut line: the coach who oversaw the biggest turnaround receives the award. In practice, it creates an annual discussion about expectations and whether we're actually honoring excellent leadership or merely the most shocking shock.

But this year's field is profoundly different. The pool of candidates is remarkably deep. It has been the campaign of turnarounds. The league has been messy, with reigning conference champions falling away and longtime strugglers ascending in unison. During an ordinary season, Sean Payton guiding the his team to the top of the conference would make him the overwhelming favorite. But in this chaotic and entertaining season, he's up against several other outstanding candidates.

This is how the projected ballot ought to shake out.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, Their Record

Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by quarterbacks. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. If you fix a franchise QB, you're halfway to winning the award.

Ben Johnson not only corrected his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. Within an ideal ecosystem, the QB has been given the opportunity to display his special talent. Since midseason onward, the Bears rank fourth in offensive EPA per play. That's not a brief surge – it's prolonged performance. Under his guidance, Williams has become more confident, far less reckless, and has willingly submitted to the gameplan instead of freelancing. It is an offense designed entirely in Johnson's vision: a bully-ball run game, a heavy helping of play-action and a imaginative aerial game that frees wide-open receivers all over the field. The QB has capitalized. And when clear throws haven't been there, he's been capable to spin magic out of broken plays.

The coach arrived to Chicago with a defined offensive philosophy. Virtually each bet – rebuilding the offensive line, featuring the tight ends, turning the QB into a timing-based passer – has succeeded. That's uncommon for a rookie head coach. And it's even more uncommon yet for a leader who entered the organization with the kind of pressure he did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the hottest name on the coaching market. But when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are no sure things. Somehow, Johnson has lived up to expectations – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not only to be a offensive wizard but the type of leader that can inject fresh energy into an franchise.

In a ordinary season, Johnson would be the overwhelming favorite. Yet the current is not a normal season!

The area where Johnson's case runs a bit unstuck is on defense. The Chicago defense currently sit 25th in defensive success rate. They are surviving on takeaways, and takeaways are notoriously unreliable. Coaches can stress creating turnovers, but no one can guarantee it. He is on the ballot because the offense is sustainable. He's not higher because variance is doing an outsized share of the defensive work. If not for a couple breaks of the ball, the Bears would be two wins behind. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the foundation is in place for long-term winning. However Johnson falls just short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, Their Record

Coen is in a similar situation to Johnson. He's a fellow rookie head coach who has masterminded a dramatic turnaround. Over the crucial final weeks of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete all-around ball of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defense that now ranks number five in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more notably, Coen has mastered the off-field stuff, which was not a certainty after his early public introduction and some of his preseason decisions.

The coach walked into Jacksonville with an exceptionally inexperienced coaching staff. In contrast to other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the perfect coaching mix of youth and veteran savvy, he hired first-timers. From the head coach on down to assistants to position coaches, the Jaguars are filled with rookies. That kind of approach is intriguing in theory, but often fails in reality – as past failures are a warning – because everyone is learning a new job in real-time. But Coen has managed to bring the entire group and all elements together.

After an initial hot start, there was a chance that the campaign would veer off the track. A mid-year setback caused the team stumbling again. That's typically when coaches overcorrect. Coen didn't. Instead, he simplified the approach. The offense stopped chasing home-run plays and started hunting reliable ones. The coach recentered the attack around key players and the running game, and asked Lawrence to use his mobility more.

The outcomes are clear. The Jags have won seven games in a row and will be the conference's number three seed. Coen gets the tiniest knock in the standings because he took over a skilled roster, but he has proven he can get the most out of that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, 13-3

Each Coach of the Year case has a defining moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback choice.

Parting ways from a veteran, signing a different signal-caller and pairing him with an new offensive coordinator could have derailed the season in the early weeks. Rather, it shaped it. By the middle point of the season, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has fallen away after that time, slipping to 23rd in efficiency per dropback over the second half of the season, placing him only one spot ahead of other QBs.

Still